2021-09-07 UAP SMS Spam encouraging vaccine hesitancy

Today, I received an SMS, authorised by Craig Kelly, linking to a United Australia Party (UAP) website hosting an image of a search for COVID-19 vaccines on the Database of Adverse Event Notifications (DAEN) provided by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGP):

Australian Government's COVID-19 Vaccines Adverse Events Report. click link Uaptga.info Authorised by Craig Kelly.

The search happens to show 448 deaths. Many people might be shocked to think that 448 people died in the month or so after have been given a vaccine! In the vast majority of cases, this actually has nothing to do with any vaccine. It turns out, if you watch a large number of people after a particular event, some will die. I bet most of those 448 people also drank water before their death, why not blame the water?

This is known as the base rate fallacy, or false cause fallacy, where a cause is assumed for an event that would have happened in any case - a false positive. This is also commonly referred to by the phrase "correlation does not imply causation".

I don't work anywhere near the medical industry, but looking through some of the reported reactions, I have a hard time working out how a vaccine might cause sepsis or pneumonia. Indeed, it's pretty obvious that many of these deaths occurred in nursing homes, respite care, or even hospitals. "Fall" is not a general cause of death for the young and healthy (assuming no recklessness).

Indeed, I look at these numbers and see just how incredibly safe these vaccines are, and I'm greatly saddened that people in influencing roles believe otherwise, and actively spread this misleading information.